Revisiting Al Gore’s GW Predictions

Al Gore has been and continues to be the most visible GW alarmist today. He has made a number of predictions about the impact of CO2 on GW over the last few decades. His book and film on An Inconvenient Truth in 2006 provide the record of many of his predictions. We look at his predictions in this blog post and provide comments on whether his predictions have been accurate or are likely to be accurate in the future. Some related recent news articles are also provided in this blog post.

  1. Falsehoods in Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth. This detailed analysis of Gore’s film and book was done in September 2006 right after they were released. It provides an Executive Summary of the eight major errors made in the film and in the book, providing page numbers in the book where the errors are made. Many pages of detailed references provided. The author finds that Gore’s portrayal of the subject of GW scientifically unsupportable.
  2. 8 Highly Inconvenient Facts for Al Gore 10 Years After His Infamous Movie. The article provides the writer’s analysis of Gore’s top eight predictions and their verification in the real world. ALL of these eight predictions turned out to be false.
  3. Changing Climate : 10 Years After An Inconvenient Truth, April, 2016. This article provides some history about how Al Gore got involved in the GW issue. This science news article provides their view of the success and failure of Al Gore’s predictions made in 2006. They try their best to defend Gore’s predictions but admit some significant failures. The article even makes some predictions of its own when recognized that Gore’s predictions failed very badly.
  4. Is Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth Accurate? These two articles, Basic and Intermediate, from the Skeptical Science (getting skeptical about GW skepticism) website attempts to defend the accuracy of Gore’s film in a British Court in 2007. Not very convincing.
  5. Al Gore Grilled Over Climate Predictions That Never Happened. An interview with Chris Wallace in June 2017. Gore makes very weak excuses to Wallace for his projections failing to come true.
  6. An Inconvenient Review: After 10 Years Al Gore’s Film is Still Alarmingly Inaccurate. Five specific predictions are shown to be false.
  7. Oscars Snub Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth Sequel. This article was published on Jan. 24, 2018. Lack of Oscar nomination is not the most important point made in the article, but the fact that the Sequel grossed only $3.4M compared to $24M for the original is significant. Reference is made again to the British Judge’s ruling on the errors in Gore’s original film. Many of Gore’s predictions come into question again. The judge ruled it a political flim based on its exaggeration and alarmism.
  8. Can Anything Good Come From CO2? This article published on Jan. 26, 2018 asks and answers the four important questions:
    1. Is the earth warming? Yes.
    2. If it is, what is causing the warming? A matter of intense debate. The average global temperature has plateaued since 1998 with CO2 in the atmosphere still increasing. There is a poor correlation between CO2 and earth’s temperature as shown by the current 20-year pause. The current UN IPCC climate models have failed and continue to fail miserably.
    3. Assuming that CO2 is causing the Earth to warm, what is the cost of mitigating its impact? $140+ Trillion by 2100 if the full Paris Climate Agreement was implemented, which would only lower the average global temperature by 0.2 or 0.3 degrees centigrade. See #4 below.
    4. If CO2 has little or no impact on the Earth’s temperature, can anything good come from future increases of CO2? Yes. Plant growth is increased.
  9. Is Chocolate Going Extinct? The prediction is made that cacao trees will be extinct by 2050 because of climate change. Most of us will not be there to see whether the prediction comes true or not. But it reminds us of Gore’s prediction that polar bears (about 5000 at the time) would become extinct in the future. The polar bear population is now over 25,000.
  10. The Globe Is Warming, But It’s Not Your Fault! This article makes the point that climate change has always been with us and always will. It takes into consideration the climate changes that have been experienced in the past, particularly the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The correlation between between CO2 and Average Global Temperature was not good from 1000 AD and 2000 AD. The measured global temperatures from 1975 AD to 2017 AD are much lower than the temperatures predicted by the UN IPCC models. The earth has a feedback system that controls the climate.
  11. And this article just published today (Feb. 1, 2018) – Global Average Temperature Plummets! Tropical Temperature Fall Third-Biggest On Record! This drop in average temperature is shown in the graph published with the article.

There are many more articles on Gore’s GW predictions that we could bring to your attention, but you get the picture. The UN IPCC’s focus on CO2 as the cause of GW is partly because their charter was limited to look for man-made causes of GW. Scientists have studied four possible causes of GW. CO2 is the only man-made cause studied. There is not enough CO2 in the atmosphere to account for the GW we have seen. The other three possible causes are natural causes. They have been shown to be much more capable of causing the GW we have seen. See a previous post for details.

A more complete article on Refuting GW Alarmism with many technical references is published here.

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